Bush leads; Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia

Were the election held today, Kerry would have roughly a 45% chance of winning and an expected 268.1 electoral votes. Note that 45 < 50, and then go give Kerry some money. I say "roughly" because my office computer, which is over 1000 miles away and contains my only functional and usually-Internet-accessible mathematical software, is not responding. Luckily, that doesn't affect my state-by-state predictions (spreadsheet on my laptop) or map-making (free drawing program on my laptop). But grrrr. I blame the recent electrical work in that building. Anyone wishing to donate me a licensed copy of Maple for OS X is welcome to do so; I would love to Command the Brilliance of a Thousand Mathematicians without having to use SSH.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

The pro-Bush swing is mostly because of a Survey USA poll from Florida (27) that changes Florida from Tossup Kerry to Very Probable Bush. West Virginia (5) changes from Close Tossup Kerry to Probable Kerry because of an ARG poll, and New Hampshire (5) changes from Safe Kerry to Very Probable Kerry because of aging data.