Current Standings; Arkansas, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia

Kerry has an 86.1% chance of winning and an expected 292.1 electoral votes. Kerry could win by taking Florida (his only Tossup state) even while losing all of his Probables and Very Probables; he could also win by losing Florida provided that he kept his Probables and Very Probables and picked up one of Bush's Tossups. Bush has 50.06% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 179: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (at large and 1st), Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Washington.

Bush 132: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska (at large, 1st, and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 59: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine (2nd), Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Wisconsin.

Bush 72: Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nebraska (2nd), Ohio, South Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 10: Maryland.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 12: New Mexico, Oregon, West Virginia.

Bush 0.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 5: Nevada.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 27: Florida.

Bush 16: Missouri, New Mexico.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 296.

Bush 242.

Missouri (formerly Tossup Kerry) and New Mexico (formerly Very Probable Kerry) switched to Tossup Bush. My confidence in Kerry's lead strengthened in Florida (Close Tossup to Tossup), Michigan (Very Safe to Extremely Safe), Nevada (Tossup to Probable), Washington (Very Safe to Extremely Safe), and West Virginia (Close Tossup to Very Probable), but weakened in Minnesota (Extremely Safe to Very Safe) and New Hampshire (Very Safe to Very Probable). My confidence in Bush's lead strengthened in Arkansas (Very Safe to Extremely Safe), Ohio (Very Probable to Very Safe), and Tennessee (Safe to Extremely Safe).