Current Standings; Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, New Jersey

Kerry has an 84.2% chance of winning and an expected 290.7 electoral votes. Kerry could win without a tossup state. Bush has 50.08% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Florida (27, Kerry) and Missouri (11, Bush) moved from Tossup to Probable, Michigan (17) moved from Extremely Safe Kerry to Very Safe Kerry, and New Mexico (5) moved from Tossup Bush to Close Tossup Bush because of corrected data; Nevada (5) moved from Probable Kerry to Tossup Kerry and New Jersey (15) moved from Extremely Safe Kerry to Very Safe Kerry because of aging data.