Current Standings; Iowa, Maine, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia

Kerry has an 90.5% chance of winning and an expected 298.4 electoral votes. Kerry could win with just Missouri, Florida, or both Nevada and West Virginia out of his tossup states. Kerry has 50.09% of the two-party popular vote, his first lead since I started these predictions.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (at large and 1st), Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island.

Bush 121: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska (at large, 1st, and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 81: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine (2nd), Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.

Bush 46: Arizona, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nebraska (2nd), South Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 10: Maryland.

Bush 26: Arkansas, Colorado, Tennessee.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 12: New Mexico, Oregon.

Bush 20: Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 16: Missouri, Nevada.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 32: Florida, West Virginia.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 312.

Bush 226.

Iowa changed from Very Probable to Very Safe Kerry; Maine (at large and 1st) changed from Safe to Extremely Safe Kerry; Maine (2nd) changed from Very Probable to Very Safe Kerry; New Jersey changed from Very Safe to Extremely Safe Kerry; Virginia changed from Very Probable to Probable Bush; West Virginia changed from Safe Bush to Close Tossup Kerry. All changes were because of new polling data. This is the first Virginia prediction based on 2004 data.