Current Standings

Following the latest Zogby polls, Bush has a clear lead. Were the election held today, Kerry would have a 32.0% chance of winning, with 265.2 expected electoral votes. Kerry has a 41.5% chance of winning on Election Day, with 265.6 expected electoral votes.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

List showing where each state would stand if the election were held today:

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 172: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (at large and 1st), Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Washington.

Bush 171: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska (at large, 1st, and 3rd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 56: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine (2nd), Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont.

Bush 79: Colorado, Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska (2nd), Nevada, Ohio.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 22: Michigan, New Mexico.

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 14: New Hampshire, Wisconsin.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 5: West Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 264.

Bush 274.