Tracking presidential elections state-by-state with the power of statistics since 2004.
| Victory probability map | Obama lead over time |
|---|---|
 |
 |
Fixed a typo in my records that had given 21 electoral votes to Ohio (20).
Were the election held today, Kerry would have a 49.5% chance of winning, with 273.0 expected electoral votes. Kerry has a 53.1% chance of winning on Election Day, with 272.0 expected electoral votes. Bush has 50.4% of the popular vote.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 12:23 AM
| Place | # of EV | Vote Est. | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | |||
| US-Popular | - | 53 | 100 |
| US-Electoral | [538] | 366 | 100 |
| No Swing States | |||
| New England | |||
| ME | 2 | 58 | 100 |
| ME1 | 1 | 59 | 100 |
| ME2 | 1 | 56 | 99 |
| NH | 4 | 54 | 100 |
| VT | 3 | 65 | 100 |
| MA | 12 | 60 | 100 |
| RI | 4 | 63 | 100 |
| CT | 7 | 58 | 100 |
| Mid Atlantic | |||
| NY | 31 | 61 | 100 |
| NJ | 15 | 57 | 100 |
| PA | 21 | 55 | 100 |
| DE | 3 | 59 | 100 |
| MD | 10 | 61 | 100 |
| DC | 3 | 91 | 100 |
| Eastern South | |||
| VA | 13 | 53 | 100 |
| WV | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| NC | 15 | 51 | 78 |
| SC | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| GA | 15 | 47 | 0 |
| FL | 27 | 51 | 95 |
| Western South | |||
| KY | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| TN | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| AL | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| MS | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| AR | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| LA | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| TX | 34 | 46 | 0 |
| Great Lakes | |||
| OH | 20 | 52 | 100 |
| MI | 17 | 56 | 100 |
| IN | 11 | 51 | 65 |
| IL | 21 | 62 | 100 |
| WI | 10 | 55 | 100 |
| MN | 10 | 56 | 100 |
| Plains | |||
| IA | 7 | 56 | 100 |
| MO | 11 | 51 | 76 |
| ND | 3 | 50 | 45 |
| SD | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| NE | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| NE1 | 1 | 46 | 4 |
| NE2 | 1 | 48 | 10 |
| NE3 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| KS | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| OK | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Mountain West | |||
| MT | 3 | 49 | 12 |
| ID | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| WY | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| CO | 9 | 54 | 100 |
| UT | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| NM | 5 | 55 | 100 |
| AZ | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| NV | 5 | 52 | 99 |
| AK | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Pacific | |||
| WA | 11 | 57 | 100 |
| OR | 7 | 57 | 100 |
| CA | 55 | 61 | 100 |
| HI | 4 | 69 | 100 |
| Obama electoral win (269+) | 100.0 |
| Obama electoral landslide (369+) | 53.9 |
| Obama electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Electoral tie (269-269) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral win (270+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral landslide (369+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Popular/electoral split | 0.0 |
| Obama popular, McCain electoral | 0.0 |
| McCain popular, Obama electoral | 0.0 |
| Likeliest result (378-160 Obama) | 20.5 |
| Mean EV | 365.7 |
| Median EV | 375 |
| Mode EV | 375 |
| 95% confidence range for EV | 311-382 |
| Mean PV | 53.3 |
| 95% confidence range for PV | 51.8-54.9 |
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