Current Standings

Were the election held today, Kerry would have a 40.4% chance of winning, with 264.5 expected electoral votes. Kerry has a 43.1% chance of winning on Election Day, with 261.8 expected electoral votes.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

List showing where each state would stand if the election were held today:

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 94: Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (at large and 1st), Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington.

Bush 127: Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 99: California, Maine (2nd), New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania.

Bush 66: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska (3rd), North Carolina, South Carolina, Wyoming.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 32: Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico.

Bush 40: Colorado, Nebraska (at-large and 1st), Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 21: Delaware, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Wisconsin.

Bush 18: Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska (2nd).

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 22: Michigan, West Virginia.

Total

Kerry 246.

Bush 292.

A number of states have changed slightly because I altered a significant parameter (really, the only parameter) in my calculations. Specifically, I had cause to raise the daily added variance in my estimates.