New and Improved Current Standings; Nevada, Ohio, West Virginia, etc.

I've made some changes to how I predict each state, in particular to how I weight old polls. This new system allows me to make predictions with greater confidence, and also theoretically allows me to state confidence estimates for Election Day predictions instead of just for if-the-election-were-today predictions, although I don't have much faith yet in Election Day predictions. (If you're curious, I give Kerry a 62.9% chance of winning, with an expected 277.3 electoral votes.) When I get back from San Francisco on Friday, I'll post more details on all this in a comment to the bookmarked "Methodology" post.

Were the election held today, Kerry would have an 70.1% chance of winning and an expected 281.7 electoral votes. Assuming all Very Probable, Safe, Very Safe, and Extremely Safe states went the predicted way, Florida would decide the winner. Bush has 50.09% of the popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 182: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (at large and 1st), Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Washington.

Bush 161: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska (at large, 1st, and 3rd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 56: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine (2nd), Michigan, Pennsylvania, Vermont.

Bush 43: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska (2nd).

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 21: New Hampshire, Oregon, Wisconsin.

Bush 25: Nevada, Ohio.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 13: Virginia.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 27: Florida.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 5: West Virginia.

Bush 5: New Mexico.

Total

Kerry 291.

Bush 247.

Many states shifted slightly. The notable shifts are Ohio (20, from Close Tossup Bush to Safe Bush, Nevada (5, from Tossup Kerry to Safe Bush), and West Virginia (5, from Very Probable Kerry to Close Tossup Kerry). These three shifts were the cause of my decreased optimism.