Victory probability mapObama lead over time

Tuesday, June 08, 2004

Zogby

Zogby's interactive poll seems to interview some of the same people from fortnight to fortnight. (I myself have taken his poll twice now.) Therefore, I am only going to use Zogby's most recent poll in my calculations. At this point, this change helps Bush overall by a slight margin and in New Mexico (where there is a dearth of data) substantially, enough to take it from Probable Kerry to Tossup Bush. Since I don't trust Zogby's online poll much anyhow, I'm not too sad about this.

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