Changes; Current Standings

I made some more changes (last time, I promise!) to try to deal with the correlation between opinion changes in different states and also for the Nader effect, which currently stands at 0.78%+-0.45% on the two-party vote.

Anyhow, were the election held today, Kerry would have a 41% chance of winning, with 267.5 expected electoral votes. Kerry has a 50% chance of winning on Election Day, with 266.9 expected electoral votes. Bush still has 49.6% of the popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

List showing the likelihood of each state's current leader winning that state on Election Day:

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 150: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 153: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (all), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 46: Delaware, Iowa, Minnesota, New Jersey, Washington.

Bush 34: Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 36: Maine (at-large and 1st), New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania.

Bush 45: Florida, Nevada, Virginia.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 21: Michigan, New Hampshire.

Bush 17: Arkansas, Missouri.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 1: Maine (2nd).

Bush 20: Ohio.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 10: Wisconsin.

Bush 5: West Virginia.

Total

Kerry 264.

Bush 274.