Current Standings; Maine, Virginia

Kerry has a 51% chance of winning the election, with 271.7 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 47% chance of winning, with 270.6 expected electoral votes. Each candidate has about 50.0% of the popular vote.

Virginia (13) moved from Probable Bush to Very Probable Bush; Maine at-large (2) and 1st (1) moved from Safe Kerry to Very Probably Kerry; and Maine 2nd (1) moved from Probable Kerry to Tossup Kerry. I'm glad there are starting to be more Virginia polls, so that the situation there can come into better focus.