Tracking presidential elections state-by-state with the power of statistics since 2004.
| Victory probability map | Obama lead over time |
|---|---|
 |
 |
Nothing terribly new. Kerry has a 51% chance of winning the election, with 272.2 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have only a 48% chance of winning, with 271.1 expected electoral votes. Kerry has 50.04% of the popular vote. The Maine 1st District (1) changed from Very Probable Kerry to Safe Kerry, and the Maine 2nd District (1) changed from Tossup Kerry to Probable Kerry.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 11:44 PM
| Place | # of EV | Vote Est. | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | |||
| US-Popular | - | 53 | 100 |
| US-Electoral | [538] | 366 | 100 |
| No Swing States | |||
| New England | |||
| ME | 2 | 58 | 100 |
| ME1 | 1 | 59 | 100 |
| ME2 | 1 | 56 | 99 |
| NH | 4 | 54 | 100 |
| VT | 3 | 65 | 100 |
| MA | 12 | 60 | 100 |
| RI | 4 | 63 | 100 |
| CT | 7 | 58 | 100 |
| Mid Atlantic | |||
| NY | 31 | 61 | 100 |
| NJ | 15 | 57 | 100 |
| PA | 21 | 55 | 100 |
| DE | 3 | 59 | 100 |
| MD | 10 | 61 | 100 |
| DC | 3 | 91 | 100 |
| Eastern South | |||
| VA | 13 | 53 | 100 |
| WV | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| NC | 15 | 51 | 78 |
| SC | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| GA | 15 | 47 | 0 |
| FL | 27 | 51 | 95 |
| Western South | |||
| KY | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| TN | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| AL | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| MS | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| AR | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| LA | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| TX | 34 | 46 | 0 |
| Great Lakes | |||
| OH | 20 | 52 | 100 |
| MI | 17 | 56 | 100 |
| IN | 11 | 51 | 65 |
| IL | 21 | 62 | 100 |
| WI | 10 | 55 | 100 |
| MN | 10 | 56 | 100 |
| Plains | |||
| IA | 7 | 56 | 100 |
| MO | 11 | 51 | 76 |
| ND | 3 | 50 | 45 |
| SD | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| NE | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| NE1 | 1 | 46 | 4 |
| NE2 | 1 | 48 | 10 |
| NE3 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| KS | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| OK | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Mountain West | |||
| MT | 3 | 49 | 12 |
| ID | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| WY | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| CO | 9 | 54 | 100 |
| UT | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| NM | 5 | 55 | 100 |
| AZ | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| NV | 5 | 52 | 99 |
| AK | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Pacific | |||
| WA | 11 | 57 | 100 |
| OR | 7 | 57 | 100 |
| CA | 55 | 61 | 100 |
| HI | 4 | 69 | 100 |
| Obama electoral win (269+) | 100.0 |
| Obama electoral landslide (369+) | 53.9 |
| Obama electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Electoral tie (269-269) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral win (270+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral landslide (369+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Popular/electoral split | 0.0 |
| Obama popular, McCain electoral | 0.0 |
| McCain popular, Obama electoral | 0.0 |
| Likeliest result (378-160 Obama) | 20.5 |
| Mean EV | 365.7 |
| Median EV | 375 |
| Mode EV | 375 |
| 95% confidence range for EV | 311-382 |
| Mean PV | 53.3 |
| 95% confidence range for PV | 51.8-54.9 |
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