Current Standings; West Virginia, South Carolina

Kerry has a 52% chance of winning the election, with 272.8 expected electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 49% chance of winning, with 271.9 expected electoral votes. Kerry has an expected 50.1% of the popular vote.

South Carolina (8) changed from Very Safe Bush to Extremely Safe Bush, and West Virginia (5) changed from Close Tossup Bush to Close Tossup Kerry. That means that if each state voted for the current leader, there would be a tie in the Electoral College.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.