Truth in Advertising; Current Standings

As if my partisanship were ever in doubt, I'm now working to raise money for the DNC. If you're one of my LiveJournal friends, you'll be hearing all about it.

Kerry has an 80% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 303.7 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have an 98% chance of winning with an expected 315.6 electoral votes. He gets 51.0% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 146: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 120: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 62: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington.

Bush 47: Arizona, Georgia, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, 2nd), North Carolina, North Dakota.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 42: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania.

Bush 20: Colorado, Tennessee.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 42: Maine (at-large and 1st), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 20: Colorado, Tennessee.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 47: Florida, Ohio.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 1: Maine (2nd).

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Total

Kerry 316.

Bush 222.