54%; Arkansas, Missouri, Wisconsin

Kerry has an 54% chance of winning the election with an expected 275.2 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 56% chance of winning with an expected 274.8 electoral votes. He gets about 50.02% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 143: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 48: Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (1st), Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington.

Bush 35: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 23: Maine (at-large), Pennsylvania.

Bush 33: Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 10: Minnesota.

Bush 31: Missouri, Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 11: Iowa, New Hampshire.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 5: West Virginia.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 28: Florida, Maine (2nd).

Bush 10: Wisconsin.

Total

Kerry 286.

Bush 252.