Bush surges

Bush has come on strong: He has more than erased Kerry's convention bounce in the popular vote, and the Republican convention hasn't even happened yet. The DNC needs money to combat the past month's strident attacks against John Kerry, and you should contribute now by sending a check to DNC/Grassroots, Attn: Ben, 1211 Chestnut St., Ste. 608, Phila., PA, 19107.

Kerry has an 56% chance of winning the election with an expected 276.0 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 58% chance of winning with an expected 276.3 electoral votes. He gets about 50.1% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 143: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 48: Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (1st), Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington.

Bush 35: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 23: Maine (at-large), Pennsylvania.

Bush 27: Colorado, Nevada, Virginia.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 10: Minnesota.

Bush 26: Arkansas, Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 11: Iowa, New Hampshire.

Bush 11: Missouri.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 5: West Virginia.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 28: Florida, Maine (2nd), Wisconsin.

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 296.

Bush 242.