Current Standings; Arkansas again

Kerry has an 72% chance of winning the election with an expected 294.4 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, he would have an 88% chance of winning with an expected 300.1 electoral votes. He gets about 50.6% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Arkansas (6) has changed back from Probable Bush to Tossup Bush.