Current Standings

Kerry has a 76% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 301.6 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 92% chance of winning with an expected 306.5 electoral votes. He gets about 51.0% of the two-party popular vote.

I corrected a small technical error in the correlation I assume between public opinion on successive days. The current and election-day expected electoral vote statistics should be closer together, and I may be predicting a slightly higher probability for the leader to win the election.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would have won if the election had been yesterday:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 138: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 3rd), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 72: Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 40: Arizona, Nebraska (2nd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 17: Iowa, Minnesota.

Bush 9: Colorado.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 16: Maine (at-large and 1st), West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Bush 0.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 29: Missouri, Nevada, Virginia.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 47: Florida, Ohio.

Bush 6: Arkansas.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 1: Maine (2nd).

Bush 0.

Total

Kerry 316.

Bush 222.