Methodology Changes; Current Standings
I've thrown out pre-March polls. Mostly this was because my Maple program wasn't handling them the right way anyhow, but also because the Bush/Kerry campaign didn't really start until March. This seems to have only a small effect on the results. Also, some weeks ago, I stopped using Zogby's online polls. I also made a slight correction to how I deal with Maine and Nebraska.
Kerry has an 84% chance for the of winning the election with an expected 312.3 electoral votes; however, if the election had been held yesterday, Kerry would have had a 98% chance of winning with an expected 321.7 electoral votes. He gets about 51.3% of the two-party popular vote.
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.
- Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)
-
Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.
Bush 132: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.
- Very Safe (90-99%)
-
Kerry 87: Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine (at-large), Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington.
Bush 46: Arizona, Kentucky, Nebraska (1st and 2nd), North Carolina, Tennessee.
- Safe (80-90%)
-
Kerry 5: Maine (1st), New Hampshire.
Bush 9: Colorado.
- Very Probable (70-80%)
-
Kerry 43: Florida, Maine (2nd), West Virginia, Wisconsin.
Bush 0.
- Probable (60-70%)
-
Kerry 20: Ohio.
Bush 18: Nevada, Virginia.
- Tossup (55-60%)
-
Kerry 0.
Bush 0.
- Close Tossup (50-55%)
-
Kerry 6: Arkansas.
Bush 11: Missouri.
- Total
-
Kerry 322.
Bush 216.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 1:30 AM
2 Comments:
For those interested, I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites here.
Executive summary: of the 38 sites surveyed, 28 show Kerry winning, and 5 others show him ahead. Five sites show Bush winning. Kerry averages around 300 votes.
Three times in the last two generations ultra liberals have been nominated. McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis each carried one, two and zero states. As the population becomes educated as to Kerry's record he is destined to join his fellow leftists as mere asterisks in world almanacs. Leftwingers may be electable in banana republics or in Europe, but not in the bastion of freedom and individualism. Only centrists or conservatives are electable here and until Democrats grasp this they will continue to wane into minority party status at all levels of government. Clinton was so popular because he substantially adopted Republican positions... welfare reform, fiscal responsibility and military dominance. Ultra liberals will always be exposed and defeated in a national election. The nation's instinct for survival will demand it.
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