20%
Kerry has an 20% chance of winning the election with an expected 242.5 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 5% chance of winning with an expected 238.7 electoral votes. He gets about 49.3% of the two-party popular vote. This is the first truly post-Convention update
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.
- Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)
-
Kerry 143: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island.
Bush 163: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.
- Very Safe (90-99%)
-
Kerry 33: Hawaii, New Jersey, Vermont, Washington.
Bush 45: Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 2nd), North Dakota, Virginia.
- Safe (80-90%)
-
Kerry 33: Delaware, Maine (1st), Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon.
Bush 57: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin.
- Very Probable (70-80%)
-
Kerry 2: Maine (at-large).
Bush 18: Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire.
- Probable (60-70%)
-
Kerry 10: Minnesota.
Bush 6: Maine (2nd), West Virginia.
- Tossup (55-60%)
-
Kerry 0.
Bush 0.
- Close Tossup (50-55%)
-
Kerry 0.
Bush 28: Iowa, Pennsylvania.
- Total
-
Kerry 221.
Bush 317.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 9:56 PM
5 Comments:
Hey, great site, bad news. Do you think this represents the actual outcome of the Nov election, or do we still have hope?
Right. Well, I'm going to go cry myself to sleep now.
-Laura W.
If I ask real nice can we maybe please get some good news next post? Thanks.
For those interested, I've posted my latest (9/19) survey of 46 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.
Executive summary: Bush has taken a significant lead over Kerry -- they've just about reversed their positions from a month ago. Thirty-eight of the 46 sites surveyed show Bush winning, and 4 other show him ahead. Bush has around 290 electoral votes, while Kerry has 221 to 226.
I do have some hope, because I know about some of the fantastic grassroots GOTV efforts in swing states that are going on under the radar screen of news orgs.
Also, because of the increased volatility in this race (as opposed to Clinton/Dole, which is what I was basing my volatility parameter on), I am increasing my "volatility parameter," which should make the likelihood of a Kerry win higher.
However, as of Sep 18, the news was worse. 13% chance of winning.
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