38%
Kerry has an 38% chance of winning the election with an expected 258.5 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 27% chance of winning with an expected 255.7 electoral votes. He gets about 49.5% of the two-party popular vote. The bounce from the Republican convention has not completely filtered into these statistics, so everything here is too optimistic.
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:
Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.
- Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)
-
Kerry 161: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.
Bush 144: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.
- Very Safe (90-99%)
-
Kerry 33: Hawaii, Maine (1st), Michigan, Washington.
Bush 61: Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska (2nd), Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia.
- Safe (80-90%)
-
Kerry 12: Delaware, Maine (at-large), Oregon.
Bush 17: Arkansas, Missouri.
- Very Probable (70-80%)
-
Kerry 5: New Mexico.
Bush 20: Ohio.
- Probable (60-70%)
-
Kerry 31: Minnesota, Pennsylvania.
Bush 37: Florida, Wisconsin.
- Tossup (55-60%)
-
Kerry 7: Iowa.
Bush 0.
- Close Tossup (50-55%)
-
Kerry 4: New Hampshire.
Bush 6: Maine (2nd), West Virginia.
- Total
-
Kerry 253.
Bush 285.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 8:23 AM
3 Comments:
not okay!!!! :(
must ... get ... involved ... NOW ...
-nh
For those interested, I've posted my latest (9/6) survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites here.
Executive summary: Bush has regained almost all the ground he lost to Kerry in the last two months. He has about 255 to 261 electoral votes, while Kerry is at 254. Of the 48 sites surveyed, 20 show Bush winning and another 6 show him ahead. Fifteen sites show Kerry winning and 6 show him ahead. One site has the race tied. It's most likely that Bush's gains are not the result of a "convention bounce."
Time to start asking everyone ages 18-25.
Are you registered to vote? Do you know what "stop-loss" oreders are? Are you aware they DO NOT have enough people in the military?
It's becoming clear that the "Exit Strategy" for Iraq is
"North to Baghdad, Hang a right, and head to Tehran."
So that we can "Spread democracy from Nation to Nation to Nation in the middle east"
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