41%
41% chance of winning, 37% if the election were today. 264.0 electoral votes expected, 263.3 if the election were held today. 49.2% of the popular vote. The 10 swingiest (I've discussed before what I mean by "swingy") states from a simulation I ran earlier with 2-3 fewer polls are Ohio (Close Tossup Kerry), Florida (Very Probable Bush), Iowa (Very Probable Bush), Wisconsin (Very Probable Bush), Minnesota (Very Probable Kerry), Missouri (Safe Bush), West Virginia (Safe Bush), New Hampshire (Very Probable Kerry), Colorado (Very Safe Bush), and Maine at-large (Close Tossup Kerry). Note that Pennsylvania is strong enough for Kerry compared to the national average that it no longer appears in the top 10 list.
By the way, I think there was a data entry error in the calculations for the last entry. It shouldn't have been quite as optimistic as it was.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 10:51 PM
9 Comments:
Have you heard the latest twist, though? Colorado has a constitutional amendment (Amendment 36) on the ballot that would award its electoral votes proportionally based on the popular vote -- and would be effective immediately for the 2004 election if passed. All sorts of bizarre. I have no idea what the polls look like on whether it will pass, though.
BDan
Interesting. Zogby's latest has Iowa and Wisconsin to Kerry (in fact, I've only seen Iowa go Bush in a couple of polls; usually it's Kerry by a point or two) by three or so points in both cases, and Colorado seems to be swingier than people give it credit for -- not to mention what BDan said about a possible electoral split.
All of which is to say that this election is going to be a nail-biter.
I heard the polls say it's unlikely that Colorado is going to vote to split the vote.
Viva
The Colorado initiative is fraught with almost as many problems as a second Bush term; it should be defeated. Certainly, all Republicans will vote against it, and probably many Democrats too, since Salazar has spoken against it. And the DNC is putting resources into CO, so they probably think that it'll fail.
Hey I see you have Kerry taking Ohio and still losing... I remember a couple months back you said the futures markets were insane for such a prediction. Hope you didn't put your money where your mouth is... just one random thought.
"Kerry taking Ohio" is a particularly naive way of stating my current Ohio prediction. Ohio is a close tossup, meaning that Kerry has a 50-55% chance of winning Ohio. Meanwhile, Kerry has a 41% chance of winning the country. The odds that Bush will win without taking Ohio are still very, very low (around 10-15%). For Bush to win without Ohio, one of two things would have to be true: 1) My estimates on OH, WI, and IA are all correct, with absolutely no error; or 2) OH swings towards Kerry while simultaneously the Upper Midwest swings towards Bush. Both possible, neither likely.
Who you think's going to win?? With the exception of 56%, your recent projections have begun to make me very nervous...
--MS
You gonna get one more model run before the election? Or too busy helping dnc/kerry before the election... I look forward to hearing what you have to say, both before and after tuesday.
41% ain't bad.
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