State details
- Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)
-
Kerry 153: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.
Bush 159: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.
- Very Safe (90-99%)
-
Kerry 56: Hawaii, Maine (1st), Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Washington.
Bush 49: Arkansas, Maine (2nd), Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 2nd), North Carolina, Virginia.
- Safe (80-90%)
-
Kerry 28: Oregon, Pennsylvania.
Bush 0.
- Very Probable (70-80%)
-
Kerry 0.
Bush 16: Missouri, Nevada.
- Probable (60-70%)
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Kerry 4: New Hampshire.
Bush 51: Colorado, Florida, West Virginia, Wisconsin.
- Tossup (55-60%)
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Kerry 20: Ohio.
Bush 7: Iowa.
- Close Tossup (50-55%)
-
Kerry 0.
Bush 2: Maine (at-large).
- Total
-
Kerry 261.
Bush 284.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 1:14 PM
5 Comments:
You've got a mistake in your math somewhere: 261+284=545, seven votes too many. I don't where the error is, but when I add up your states I get Kerry 264 - Bush 274.
For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/18) survey of 62 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.
Executive summary: The gap between Bush and Kerry continued to close, but with less speed than last week, with Bush's 50 vote lead of 2 weeks ago now down to about 10 votes. Kerry stayed where he was, at 247 to 249 votes, but Bush lost 5 or 6 votes, landing at 256 to 260 votes. About equal numbers of sites (36 and 37) showed Bush and Kerry leading or ahead, but more sites showed Bush with over 270 votes (24) than did Kerry (17). Neither candidate averaged enough votes to be the clear winner at this point.
Yeah, I knew there was an adding error somewhere, but I didn't have time myself to track it down. Thanks for doing it for me!
I'm interested to see that you still think New Mexico will go to Kerry with such a high probability. Recent polls suggest it's currently in Bush's column, which would seem to reduce the probability of it breaking for Kerry.
Hi Dave!
Except for one recent Gallup poll, I'm not aware of any NM poll since August with Bush up. Also, my model considers Kerry gains in surrounding states to be (weak) evidence for Kerry gains in NM.
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