03/01/08: Obama by 3%

Popular vote estimate:

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of electoral victory: over 99%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 318.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 285 to 347.
• Probability of electoral college tie: under 1%.
• Probability of popular victory: over 99%.
• Expected popular vote: Win by 2.8%.
• Swing states:
  • PA 49%.
  • OH 38%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of electoral victory: 78%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 308.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 187 to 400.
• Probability of electoral college tie: under 1%.
• Probability of popular victory: 75%.
• Expected popular vote: Win by 2.8%.
• Swing states:
  • PA 84%.
  • OH 84%.
  • MO 71%.
  • NH 65%.
  • NJ 59%.
  • CO 59%.
  • WI 58%.
  • NV 53%.
  • NM 49%.
  • AR 49%.
  • FL 47%.
  • ME2 45%.
  • MI 35%.
  • CT 35%.
  • OR 34%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):