03/15/08: Obama by 2%

Popular vote estimate:

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of electoral victory: 92%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 299.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 257 to 336.
• Probability of electoral college tie: under 0.1%.
• Probability of popular victory: over 99%.
• Expected popular vote: Win by 2.4%.
• Swing states:
  • OH 67%.
  • PA 56%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of electoral victory: 67%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 292.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 197 to 375.
• Probability of electoral college tie: under 1%.
• Probability of popular victory: 73%.
• Expected popular vote: Win by 2.4%.
• Swing states:
  • OH 89%.
  • PA 85%.
  • MO 67%.
  • NH 66%.
  • NJ 63%.
  • FL 42%.
  • NM 38%.
  • CO 37%.
  • NV 37%.
  • MI 35%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):