McCain by 1.4%

Popular vote estimate:

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of electoral victory: 4%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 247.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 216 to 275.
• Probability of electoral college tie: under 0.1%.
• Probability of popular victory: 6%.
• Expected popular vote: Loss by 1.4%.
• Swing states:
  • PA 85%.
  • OH 57%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of electoral victory: 29%.
• Expected value of electoral votes: 246.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 162 to 336.
• Probability of electoral college tie: under 1%.
• Probability of popular victory: 36%.
• Expected popular vote: Loss by 1.4%.
• Swing states:
  • PA 91%.
  • OH 86%.
  • NH 66%.
  • MO 64%.
  • NJ 55%.
  • MI 42%.
  • FL 41%.
  • WI 39%.
  • NV 37%.
  • CO 36%.
  • NM 35%.
• Electoral vote distribution (electoral votes vs. probability):
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):