Electoral College ties
As I've mentioned before, I believe an Electoral College tie is possible, and that Obama will win if it occurs. The three main situations that would produce a tie all start with a baseline of Obama winning the intersection of the Gore and Kerry states (includes Pacific states ex AK; Great Lakes states ex IN and OH; and the Northeast from ME to DC ex NH):
- Obama also wins IA, CO, and NM;
- Obama also wins IA, CO, and NV;
- Obama also wins NH, IA, NM, and NV.
There are also some less plausible scenarios in which Obama loses PA but wins OH, but I believe that it is unlikely for Obama to win OH while losing PA. Overall, the probability of a tie seems to be in the neighborhood of 1-2%.
Recall that in the event of a tie, the House of Representatives chooses the President from among the top Electoral vote-getters, with each state delegation having one vote. It takes 26 states to elect the president. If neither candidate gets 26 states, they keep balloting. If the House can't decide, then the VP (chosen by the Democratic Senate) acts as President.
The good news for Democrats is that, with the election of Democrat Travis Childers to the House from Mississippi, Democrats now control an even greater majority of state delegations: 27-21 with two delegations tied. Up until the Childers victory, it would only have taken the loss of one delegation to take the election away from Obama; now it would take two.
I see two risks. One is that Obama loses a state with a majority Democratic delegation, and then Democratic House members (particularly Southern and Appalachian Blue Dogs) from that state vote for McCain. The other is that Democrats lose states in the November election.
Here are the states vulnerable to representatives being unfaithful because of McCain winning their states. I've put asterisks next to the ones of particular concern.
- *AR: 3-1 Democratic, Obama loses, 2 Blue Dogs.
- CO: 4-3 Democratic, Obama loses in 1 of the 3 main tie scenarios and loses Salazar's district in all scenarios, 1 Blue Dog.
- *IN: 5-4 Democratic, Obama loses, 3 Blue Dogs.
- MN: 5-3 Democratic, Obama wins the state but loses Peterson's district.
- *MS: 3-1 Democratic, Obama loses, 2 Blue Dogs.
- NH: 2-0 Democratic, Obama loses in 2 of the 3 main tie scenarios.
- *NC: 7-6 Democratic, Obama loses, 2 Blue Dogs.
- ND: 1-0 Democratic, Obama loses, 1 Blue Dog.
- SD: 1-0 Democratic, Obama loses, 1 Blue Dog.
- *TN: 5-4 Democratic, Obama loses, 4 Blue Dogs.
- *WV: 2-1 Democratic, Obama loses.
And here are the ones vulnerable to Democratic losses:
- *IN: 5-4 Democratic, Hill is in a re-re-rematch.
- IA: 3-2 Democratic, Boswell always seems to be vulnerable.
- MN: 5-3 Democratic, Walz may have a challenging race. On the other hand, Democrats might pick up Ramstad's seat.
- *MS: 3-1 Democratic, Childers will presumably be in another close race.
- *NC: 7-6 Democratic, does Shuler have a decent challenger?
- PA: 11-8 Democratic, Carney, Patrick Murphy, and Altmire are all vulnerable to various extents.
- WI: 5-3 Democratic, does Kagen have a decent challenger?
On the other hand, the Republicans only have to be concerned about:
- *DE: 1-0 Republican, Obama wins.
- MI: 9-6 Republican, but Walberg has a good challenger and Obama will win the state.
- NV: 2-1 Republican, Obama wins in 2 of 3 scenarios.
- *NM: 2-1 Republican, but all three seats are open, and Obama wins in 2 of 3 scenarios.
- WY: 1-0 Republican, but I assume Cubin is vulnerable as always.
Given that 1) the Republicans will probably not be able to get a 26-state majority of their own even with a few Democratic switchers; and 2) the Democratic Senate will be able to install a Democratic acting President if the House fails to choose a President, I would think that Democrats like Gene Taylor and Heath Shuler would not choose to throw the election into chaos by voting for McCain. Nevertheless, we shouldn't underestimate how tough and dirty the Republicans could fight, nor how weak some Democrats can be, particularly if McCain wins the popular vote. Hopefully, Congressional Democrats will make it clear that this is expected to be a strictly party-line vote, akin to choosing the Speaker.
Labels: mississippi, tie
posted by Benjamin Schak at 9:45 PM
10 Comments:
A question: I cannot find a source on WHICH Congress would decide in the case of a tie. When would this happen? Would it be the chamber in office in November and December, or the newly-elected chamber?
It'd be the new Congress. It gets sworn in right at the beginning of Jan (the 3rd I think), and it formally counts the electoral votes a few days later (I want to say the 6th).
So, there is some risk that Democrats would lose their hold on the majority of states and a tie would go to McCain (or the House descend into confusion, which would devolve the presidency to the VP, who the Senate would appoint), but I think it's reasonable to discount that possibility this year. If it looks like it is becoming a possibility, I'll probably write some hack to factor it in.
Here’s a what-if scenario that I just ran on the election, if it were held today (9/22/08):
Pres: Barack Obama
VP: Sarah Palin
Say what??? I’m insane, right? Well, follow along…
1) I took the current default map from http://www.270towin.com which plots expected outcomes in states where polls are convincing enough to predict a winner. That leaves 13 states undecided.
2) I plug in all of the light red/blue conclusions from the USA Today poll tracker at http://tiny.pl/8kmm . That leaves 4 states undecided (NV, CO, PA, NH.)
3) I take the most recent poll data from those four states (in the case of an exact tie, I take the one previous) as reported by USA Today. The polls show NV: McCain (49-46), CO: Obama (51-41), PA: Obama (49-44), and NH: McCain (48-45) Now, I plug these four results into the interactive map at 270towin, and I get…
*gasp*
Obama: 269; McCain: 269… A DEAD TIE!!!
If neither candidate has reached 270 Electoral Votes, then the House and Senate take over and elect the President and Vice-President, respectively.
4) So, let’s go to the House of Representatives to determine the president. Assuming straight party lines, the House is controlled by the Dems, so OBAMA IS “ELECTED” PRESIDENT by the House
5) Let’s turn to the Senate to determine the VP: 49 Reps, 49 Dems, 2 Independents. Again, going with straight party line, the score is 49-49. Now, we know that Lieberman will vote for McCain, so give John a one vote advantage, but even if Bernard Sanders votes for Obama, you now have a 50-50 tie… bring in Dick Cheney to break the tie, he’ll go party line for sure, and PALIN IS “ELECTED” VICE PRESIDENT by the senate.
There are still some “ifs” in there, like… the house and senate must stay at their current levels… for the senate, that’s a big “if.”
mll1013,
The new Senate is likely to be more Dem (54-57, +/-), so Palin is out, or one can only hope.
Also, the House does not vote by straight line vote. Each states' congressional delegation votes, and each state has only one vote. So, lets take Indiana, which has 9 congressmen (5 Dems, 4 Reps), who might've voted for McCain in the Electoral College, would probably vote for Obama in the case of a tie.
He didn't mean "straight vote", he meant "straight-line party vote", meaning that each rep in each state delegation would vote for the candidate of his party.
I've heard the the sitting VP (Chaney) does NOT get to break a tie in a VP decision.
The XXV amendment brings up an interesting point, if the Senate can't decide, then the new President gets to nominate a person for VP that needs a majority of both parties. But that would play out after 1/20/09. I suppose that the new Pres would have some real clout in banging heads together to get his nominee passed. Of course it could be someone totally different than Biden/Palin.
But in all seriousness, I have to believe that if the Senate got to decide, that they would a) have more dems than today b) Even if it wasn't, some Republican would blink and vote for their fellow Senator before Palin. They might need to switch parties if they did. Say Olympia Snow, or other moderate Republican. They wouldn't "defect" if it wasn't down to their vote though.
Good comments on this thread. The tie is an interesting situation, but it is looking less likely every day at least based on poll information.
With polls favoring Obama in HN and NV, and with margins for McCain eroding in OH, VA, and FL, Obama is in pretty good position. In my analysis, McCain would have to win all 5 of those states to tie.
I'm not sure if I believe the polls much, though... my wife convinced me that democrats are usually more outspoken, and are therefore more likely to not hang up when the pollster calls. To prove her point, she showed me a great many more Obama bumper stickers and signs around, even though our state is one of the top three conservative states in the country.
I guess we'll have to wait until after 11/4 to see if she is right or not.
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