Obama up by 0.8%; 66% chance of victory

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 66% electoral, 60% popular. This includes 3% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 279 electoral votes, popular win by 0.8%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 189 to 354.
• Swing states (correlation):
  • PA 88%
  • OH 71%
  • NH 65%
  • MI 59%
  • NV 57%
  • NM 57%
  • CO 51%
  • MO 45%
  • NJ 44%
  • WI 42%
• Swing states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • PA .103
  • OH .033
  • NM .031
  • MI .030
  • CO .022
  • NV .017
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: 90% electoral, 79% popular. This includes a 6% chance of a tie.
• Expected value of vote: 284 electoral votes, popular win by 0.8%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 248 to 309.
• Swing states (correlation):
  • PA 83%
• Swing states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • PA .132
  • NM .036
  • MI .035
  • CO .024
  • OH .021
  • NV .016
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Popular vote estimate:

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)