Not a Swing State Watch: California edition

I've seen a couple Republicans suggest that CA is in play. I believe that Obama is up by 17 points in CA, and that CA is not in play. Obama has a better chance of winning TX than McCain does in the Democratic big states of CA, NY, or IL.

Suppose, however, that McCain devoted all his resources to CA, Obama did not change his strategy, and McCain was able to take the state. How bad would that be for Obama?

Not so bad. Obama would be able to easily pick up OH, IA, MO, CO, NM, NV uncontested, which is enough for 254 electoral votes. After that, FL is the obvious place to get the rest of the votes, although VA and two NE votes would be enough to squeak by. It would make it difficult for Obama to achieve an overwhelming victory in the Electoral College. Maybe that's what Republicans are playing for at this point -- prevent Obama from a massive victory that would transform American politics. Or more likely, they're just blowing smoke about CA.