Obama up by 1.1%; 69% chance of victory

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 69% electoral, 64% popular. This includes a 2-3% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 282 electoral votes, popular win by 1.1%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 192 to 357.
• Swing states (correlation):
  • PA 89%
  • OH 71%
  • NH 67%
  • MI 61%
  • NV 58%
  • NM 57%
  • CO 49%
  • MO 47%
  • NJ 44%
  • WI 41%
• Swing states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • PA .094
  • NM .029
  • OH .028
  • MI .027
  • CO .016
  • NV .014
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: 94% electoral, 88% popular. This includes a 4% chance of a tie.
• Expected value of vote: 288 electoral votes, popular win by 1.1%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 253 to 309.
• Swing states (correlation):
  • PA 83%
• Swing states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • PA .106
  • NM .026
  • MI .029
  • OH .016
  • CO .016
  • NV .012
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Popular vote estimate:

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)