Obama up by 3.6%; 81% chance of victory

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 81% electoral, 80% popular. This includes a 1% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 312 electoral votes, popular win by 3.6%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 199 to 421.
• Swing states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • PA .051
  • MI .032
  • OH .029
  • NM .016
  • NV .010
• Swing states (correlation):
  • 80%+ PA
  • 70%+ OH, MI
  • 60%+ NH
  • 50%+ NM, NV, MO
  • 40%+ CO, WI, VA, NJ
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: >99.5% electoral, >99.5% popular. This includes a <0.5% chance of a tie.
• Expected value of vote: 313 electoral votes, popular win by 3.2%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 278 to 352.
• Swing states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • [none]
• Swing states (correlation):
  • 50%+ PA
  • 40%+ MI
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Popular vote estimate

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)