Obama up by 5.1%; 90% chance of victory

Commentary

I think this is the first update in which Obama has a >50% probability of winning FL. Right now, in light of the Quinnipiac and ARG polls in FL, and polls elsewhere that show a general Obama surge, I have FL at 50.04% Obama, with a margin of error of 1.67% if the election were held today. In fact, it's quite possible that FL will be about as close as it was in 2000, although this time the results wouldn't matter becaule FL is not a swing state anymore.

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 90% electoral, 89% popular. This includes a <0.5% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 333 electoral votes, popular win by 5.1%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: ....
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • OH .026
  • PA .025
  • MI .022
  • NM .014
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • 70%+ OH, PA, MI
  • 60%+ NH
  • 50%+ NM, MO
  • 40%+ NV, CO, WI, VA
  • 30%+NJ, FL
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: In 10,000 simulations, Obama won both electoral and popular votes every time. [Edited to add: Make that "70,000 simulations."]
• Expected value of vote: 335 electoral votes, popular win by 5.1%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: ....
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • [none]
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • [none]
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Popular vote estimate

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)