Obama up by 5.2%; 91% chance of victory

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 91% electoral, 90% popular. This includes a <0.5% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 335 electoral votes, popular win by 5.2%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 225 to 443.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • OH .024
  • PA .021
  • MI .017
  • NM .016
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • 70%+ OH, PA, MI
  • 50%+ NHNM, CO
  • 40%+ NV, WI, MO, WI, VA, NJ
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: >99.5% electoral, >99.5% popular. This includes a <0.5% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 335 electoral votes, popular win by 5.2%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 298 to 370.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • [none]
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • [insufficient sample]
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker green for Obama):

Popular vote estimate

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker green for Obama.)