Obama up by 5.8%; 93% chance of victory

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 93% electoral, 92% popular. This includes a <0.5% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 340 electoral votes, popular win by 5.8%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 231 to 458.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • PA .020
  • OH .019
  • MI .015
  • NM .013
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • 70%+ OH, PA, MI
  • 50%+ NM, NH, CO
  • 40%+ NV, MO, NJ
  • 30%+ WI, VA
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker blue for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: Obama won both electoral and popular votes in all 40,000 simulations.
• Expected value of vote: 339 electoral votes, popular win by 5.8%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 306 to 375.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • [insufficient sample]
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • [insufficient sample]
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker blue for Obama):

Popular vote estimate

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker blue for Obama.)