Obama up by 5.0%; 91% chance of victory

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 91% electoral, 90% popular. This includes a <0.5% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 328 electoral votes, popular win by 5.0%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 230 to 426.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • OH .026
  • MI .021
  • NM .019
  • PA .018
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • 70%+ OH, MI
  • 60%+ PA
  • 50%+ NM, CO, NH
  • 40%+ NV
  • 30%+ MO, WI, VA
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker blue for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: >99.5% electoral, >99.5% popular.
• Expected value of vote: 325 electoral votes, popular win by 5.0%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 293 to 367.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • [none]
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • [insufficient sample]
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker blue for Obama):

Popular vote estimate

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker blue for Obama.)