Obama up by 1.2%; 62% chance of victory

Prediction for Election Day

• Probability of victory: 60% electoral, 62% popular. This includes a 2% chance of tie.
• Expected value of vote: 280 electoral votes, popular win by 1.2%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 182 to 384.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • MI .060
  • CO .051
  • OH .050
  • NM .029
  • PA .026
  • NV .021
  • VA .019
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • 70%+ CO, MI, OH
  • 60%+ NM, NH
  • 50%+ PA, VA
  • 40%+ WI
  • 30%+ MO, FL
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker blue for Obama):

Prediction if the election were today

• Probability of victory: 75% electoral, 82% popular.
• Expected value of vote: 280 electoral votes, popular win by 1.2%.
• 95% range of electoral votes: 242 to 311.
• Must-win states (pseudo-Banzhaf):
  • MI .121
  • CO .117
  • OH .082
  • NM .063
  • NV .042
  • VA .029
  • PA .028
• Bellwether states (correlation):
  • 50%+ CO, MI
  • 40%+ OH
  • 30%+ NM, NV
• Confidence map (states sized by electoral vote, darker red means higher confidence that McCain will win, darker blue for Obama):

Popular vote estimate

(Darker red means more votes for McCain, darker blue for Obama.)