VP timing

Jerome Armstrong at MyDD reports that McCain will announce his VP pick on Friday, 8/29, one day after the Democratic convention ends. Friday is traditionally the day to make announcements that you don't want the press to cover, but it's hard to see what earlier date would be better. If he announces between now and 8/24, he'll be fighting the Olympic coverage. If he announces between now and 8/27, the Democrats would have 1-4 days of convention coverage to define his pick. If he announces during the Democratic convention, 8/25 to 8/28, he looks gauche and possibly gets negative process stories from the Washington press. And if he announces on 8/28, he'd be going head-to-head against an Obama speech, which he'd do well to avoid. I think if I were McCain, I'd announce the VP on the day that Bush speaks at the Republican convention, in order to swamp coverage of Bush.

I do remember noticing in 2004 that Kerry got a larger convention bounce in PA than nationally, possibly because he had a huge, well-publicized rally in Philadelphia just before the convention that had a multiplier effect. McCain is hoping for an outsize gain in OH, and he think he'll get it.