Blue Screen of McCain
During the part of McCain's speech I was awake for, I couldn't stop thinking of this image.
I hereby retract my prediction that McCain would get a greater bounce than Obama.
posted by Benjamin Schak at 11:59 PM
| Victory probability map | Obama lead over time |
|---|---|
 |
 |
Thursday, September 04, 2008
I hereby retract my prediction that McCain would get a greater bounce than Obama.
Current Estimates — updated 11/3
| Place | # of EV | Vote Est. | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | |||
| US-Popular | - | 53 | 100 |
| US-Electoral | [538] | 366 | 100 |
| No Swing States | |||
| New England | |||
| ME | 2 | 58 | 100 |
| ME1 | 1 | 59 | 100 |
| ME2 | 1 | 56 | 99 |
| NH | 4 | 54 | 100 |
| VT | 3 | 65 | 100 |
| MA | 12 | 60 | 100 |
| RI | 4 | 63 | 100 |
| CT | 7 | 58 | 100 |
| Mid Atlantic | |||
| NY | 31 | 61 | 100 |
| NJ | 15 | 57 | 100 |
| PA | 21 | 55 | 100 |
| DE | 3 | 59 | 100 |
| MD | 10 | 61 | 100 |
| DC | 3 | 91 | 100 |
| Eastern South | |||
| VA | 13 | 53 | 100 |
| WV | 5 | 47 | 1 |
| NC | 15 | 51 | 78 |
| SC | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| GA | 15 | 47 | 0 |
| FL | 27 | 51 | 95 |
| Western South | |||
| KY | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| TN | 11 | 43 | 0 |
| AL | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| MS | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| AR | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| LA | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| TX | 34 | 46 | 0 |
| Great Lakes | |||
| OH | 20 | 52 | 100 |
| MI | 17 | 56 | 100 |
| IN | 11 | 51 | 65 |
| IL | 21 | 62 | 100 |
| WI | 10 | 55 | 100 |
| MN | 10 | 56 | 100 |
| Plains | |||
| IA | 7 | 56 | 100 |
| MO | 11 | 51 | 76 |
| ND | 3 | 50 | 45 |
| SD | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| NE | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| NE1 | 1 | 46 | 4 |
| NE2 | 1 | 48 | 10 |
| NE3 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| KS | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| OK | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Mountain West | |||
| MT | 3 | 49 | 12 |
| ID | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| WY | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| CO | 9 | 54 | 100 |
| UT | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| NM | 5 | 55 | 100 |
| AZ | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| NV | 5 | 52 | 99 |
| AK | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Pacific | |||
| WA | 11 | 57 | 100 |
| OR | 7 | 57 | 100 |
| CA | 55 | 61 | 100 |
| HI | 4 | 69 | 100 |
Scenarios
| Obama electoral win (269+) | 100.0 |
| Obama electoral landslide (369+) | 53.9 |
| Obama electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Electoral tie (269-269) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral win (270+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral landslide (369+) | 0.0 |
| McCain electoral avalanche (469+) | 0.0 |
| Popular/electoral split | 0.0 |
| Obama popular, McCain electoral | 0.0 |
| McCain popular, Obama electoral | 0.0 |
| Likeliest result (378-160 Obama) | 20.5 |
Simulation Stats
| Mean EV | 365.7 |
| Median EV | 375 |
| Mode EV | 375 |
| 95% confidence range for EV | 311-382 |
| Mean PV | 53.3 |
| 95% confidence range for PV | 51.8-54.9 |
Bookmarks
Links
Recent Posts
- data integrity; Biden and convention bounces
- Political shifts since 2004 by state
- Obama up by 1.2%; 62% chance of victory
- Obama drop
- VP timing
- Tie scenarios
- Wasted gains
- Dear John Quinn of Parma, OH
- Olympic advertisement
- Wisdom about interpreting polls
About Me
- Name: Benjamin Schak
- Location: Norwalk, Connecticut, United States
3 Comments:
Just found your site today, researching data on electoral ties. Been looking around for a while. Just wanted to say that I really appreciate what you are doing here. Thanks so much.
I like your site. Just curious why you are now showing CO going to McCain - all the polls I've seen still show Obama ahead....
Hi jkollin,
Over the past month, there have been polls with both Obama and McCain ahead (and nearly all show a very close race). Pollster gives a good sense of this.
If I were only using CO polls to form an estimate of the current CO vote, then I would almost certainly have Obama with a slight lead there. The three CO polls in the last week average out to a 48-46 Obama lead, which is better than the previous September CO polls that indicated a McCain lead. However, these three polls only have a combined sample of 2079 people, so that their prediction of an Obama lead has only a low level of statistical significance.
Meanwhile, there is overwhelming evidence in national polls and other states' polls that McCain has gained strength over the past week.
So, the question is, which do you believe are more indicative of the state of affairs in CO? The small number of CO-specific polls that show Obama improving in CO, or the large number of non-CO-specific polls that show McCain improving? I believe there's a strong correlation between CO and other states, so that non-CO-specific polls can be nearly as informative polls about CO as CO-specific polls. Therefore, I believe that McCain has probably improved in CO over the past couple weeks, and that there's now a 60% chance that he's leading there.
It's possible that, contrary to my expectations, the CO-specific polls are accurate, and indicate that Obama has strengthened in CO a lot relative to the nation since the Republican convention. Future polls could bear this out.
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