Now is not the time for me to be on the blogs

Updates will be rare for the remainder of the election, as I'll be volunteering full-time in Bucks County, PA.

I just ran the numbers again, and am observing the same as Jonathan Singer. The race has been very static in the past couple weeks. This makes sense to me: Obama is near his ceiling, and McCain has seen one news-cycle after another wasted on unhelpful stories like Sarah Palin going rogue or the disturbed CRNC staffer in Pittsburgh.

The persuasion phase of Obama's campaign ends on Thursday evening, when the news cycle following his half-hour advertisement ends, and it has been a success: He leads roughly 50-43 going into the final get-out-the-vote weekend, and will have the support of a majority of the nation on election day.

However, despite the central McCain campaign's so-so field program, the Republican Party remains well organized in most swing states, and aspects of their base have been energized by Sarah Palin. To paraphrase John McCain, they know how to get their voters to the polls, and they will get their voters to the polls.

That means that this race is real simple. There are more Obama supporters than McCain supporters, so if we Democrats get every Obama supporters to turn out on election day, we will win this race together. If we fail to get our voters to the polls on election day, John McCain and Sarah Palin will have a chance. So stand up, go to your local field office, and contact some voters.

And go Phillies!