41%

41% chance of winning, 37% if the election were today. 264.0 electoral votes expected, 263.3 if the election were held today. 49.2% of the popular vote. The 10 swingiest (I've discussed before what I mean by "swingy") states from a simulation I ran earlier with 2-3 fewer polls are Ohio (Close Tossup Kerry), Florida (Very Probable Bush), Iowa (Very Probable Bush), Wisconsin (Very Probable Bush), Minnesota (Very Probable Kerry), Missouri (Safe Bush), West Virginia (Safe Bush), New Hampshire (Very Probable Kerry), Colorado (Very Safe Bush), and Maine at-large (Close Tossup Kerry). Note that Pennsylvania is strong enough for Kerry compared to the national average that it no longer appears in the top 10 list. By the way, I think there was a data entry error in the calculations for the last entry. It shouldn't have been quite as optimistic as it was.
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State details

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 153: California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 159: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 56: Hawaii, Maine (1st), Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Washington.

Bush 49: Arkansas, Maine (2nd), Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 2nd), North Carolina, Virginia.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 28: Oregon, Pennsylvania.

Bush 0.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 16: Missouri, Nevada.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 4: New Hampshire.

Bush 51: Colorado, Florida, West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 20: Ohio.

Bush 7: Iowa.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 2: Maine (at-large).

Total

Kerry 261.

Bush 284.

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57%

57% chance of winning, 58% if the election were today. 276.3 electoral votes expected, 275.9 if the election were held today. 49.7% of the popular vote. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire leaning Kerry, Florida and Wisconsin leaning Bush, Ohio and Iowa tossups (Ohio slightly leaning Kerry, Iowa slightly to Bush), Maine splitting 3-1 but not sure which way.

Back to dealing with volunteers...

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26%

Kerry has an 26% chance of winning the election with an expected 253.4 electoral votes; however, if the election were held today, Kerry would have a 14% chance of winning with an expected 249.9 electoral votes. He gets about 48.9% of the two-party popular vote.

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate would win if the election were today:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the chances that the leading candidate will win on Election Day:

Cartogram showing, for each electoral vote, the expected percentage (of Bush/Kerry votes only) for the leading candidate.

Extremely Safe (99%+ chance of winning)

Kerry 136: California, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Bush 174: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska (3rd), North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.

Very Safe (90-99%)

Kerry 87: Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (1st), Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Washington.

Bush 40: Arkansas, Maine (2nd), Missouri, Nebraska (at-large, 1st, and 2nd), Nevada, Virginia.

Safe (80-90%)

Kerry 7: Oregon.

Bush 51: Colorado, Florida, West Virginia, Wisconsin.

Very Probable (70-80%)

Kerry 10: Minnesota.

Bush 27: Iowa, Ohio.

Probable (60-70%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 0.

Tossup (55-60%)

Kerry 4: New Hampshire.

Bush 0.

Close Tossup (50-55%)

Kerry 0.

Bush 2: Maine (at-large).

Total

Kerry 244.

Bush 294.

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Ha

A reader comments, "Sounds like the fact that America [sic] disillusionment with the idea of a Kerry Presidency has had the effect of making you disinterested in the campaign." I think this reader meant "uninterested," but that's beside the point. I am indeed quite interested in the campaign, as evidenced by my taking a leave of absence from grad school and working about 110 hours a week (for non-mathematicians, that's just under 16 hours a day, 7 days a week) as an organizer in a get-out-the-vote office. I have more recent numbers for this little side project, but won't have the maps until tomorrow evening. There's been a glut of state polls lately, which is fantastic, but makes it a little hard to keep up with.

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