The mode of 342

It's striking how likely 342 electoral votes is for Obama in the Election Day histogram. The reason that this particular number comes up a lot is that it's relatively easy for Obama to win the Kerry states plus {NV, NM, CO, AR, MO, IA, OH, FL} with just a modest nationwide shift (about half a percent) from where he stands today. However, after those seven states it takes a good deal more movement for him to pick up anything else. AZ would probably be a swing state if it weren't McCain's home state. People have talked about VA being a possible pickup (and the one small poll conducted recently in VA does show Obama up), but my best estimate is still that Obama is about two points lower in VA than in FL, his next-worst state. Of course, if more polls come out showing Obama doing well in VA, then I bet the mode will climb to 355.
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