Electoral College ties

As I've mentioned before, I believe an Electoral College tie is possible, and that Obama will win if it occurs. The three main situations that would produce a tie all start with a baseline of Obama winning the intersection of the Gore and Kerry states (includes Pacific states ex AK; Great Lakes states ex IN and OH; and the Northeast from ME to DC ex NH):

1. Obama also wins IA, CO, and NM;
2. Obama also wins IA, CO, and NV;
3. Obama also wins NH, IA, NM, and NV.

There are also some less plausible scenarios in which Obama loses PA but wins OH, but I believe that it is unlikely for Obama to win OH while losing PA. Overall, the probability of a tie seems to be in the neighborhood of 1-2%.

Recall that in the event of a tie, the House of Representatives chooses the President from among the top Electoral vote-getters, with each state delegation having one vote. It takes 26 states to elect the president. If neither candidate gets 26 states, they keep balloting. If the House can't decide, then the VP (chosen by the Democratic Senate) acts as President.

The good news for Democrats is that, with the election of Democrat Travis Childers to the House from Mississippi, Democrats now control an even greater majority of state delegations: 27-21 with two delegations tied. Up until the Childers victory, it would only have taken the loss of one delegation to take the election away from Obama; now it would take two.

I see two risks. One is that Obama loses a state with a majority Democratic delegation, and then Democratic House members (particularly Southern and Appalachian Blue Dogs) from that state vote for McCain. The other is that Democrats lose states in the November election.

Here are the states vulnerable to representatives being unfaithful because of McCain winning their states. I've put asterisks next to the ones of particular concern.

• *AR: 3-1 Democratic, Obama loses, 2 Blue Dogs.
• CO: 4-3 Democratic, Obama loses in 1 of the 3 main tie scenarios and loses Salazar's district in all scenarios, 1 Blue Dog.
• *IN: 5-4 Democratic, Obama loses, 3 Blue Dogs.
• MN: 5-3 Democratic, Obama wins the state but loses Peterson's district.
• *MS: 3-1 Democratic, Obama loses, 2 Blue Dogs.
• NH: 2-0 Democratic, Obama loses in 2 of the 3 main tie scenarios.
• *NC: 7-6 Democratic, Obama loses, 2 Blue Dogs.
• ND: 1-0 Democratic, Obama loses, 1 Blue Dog.
• SD: 1-0 Democratic, Obama loses, 1 Blue Dog.
• *TN: 5-4 Democratic, Obama loses, 4 Blue Dogs.
• *WV: 2-1 Democratic, Obama loses.

And here are the ones vulnerable to Democratic losses:

• *IN: 5-4 Democratic, Hill is in a re-re-rematch.
• IA: 3-2 Democratic, Boswell always seems to be vulnerable.
• MN: 5-3 Democratic, Walz may have a challenging race. On the other hand, Democrats might pick up Ramstad's seat.
• *MS: 3-1 Democratic, Childers will presumably be in another close race.
• *NC: 7-6 Democratic, does Shuler have a decent challenger?
• PA: 11-8 Democratic, Carney, Patrick Murphy, and Altmire are all vulnerable to various extents.
• WI: 5-3 Democratic, does Kagen have a decent challenger?

On the other hand, the Republicans only have to be concerned about:

• *DE: 1-0 Republican, Obama wins.
• MI: 9-6 Republican, but Walberg has a good challenger and Obama will win the state.
• NV: 2-1 Republican, Obama wins in 2 of 3 scenarios.
• *NM: 2-1 Republican, but all three seats are open, and Obama wins in 2 of 3 scenarios.
• WY: 1-0 Republican, but I assume Cubin is vulnerable as always.

Given that 1) the Republicans will probably not be able to get a 26-state majority of their own even with a few Democratic switchers; and 2) the Democratic Senate will be able to install a Democratic acting President if the House fails to choose a President, I would think that Democrats like Gene Taylor and Heath Shuler would not choose to throw the election into chaos by voting for McCain. Nevertheless, we shouldn't underestimate how tough and dirty the Republicans could fight, nor how weak some Democrats can be, particularly if McCain wins the popular vote. Hopefully, Congressional Democrats will make it clear that this is expected to be a strictly party-line vote, akin to choosing the Speaker.

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